The variance of NL and thoughts on my poker mindset

After a modest down-session this morning (2 buyins), I got to thinking more about the swings I have had this year. This year has been a very profitable year. In fact, after doing my tax returns, this year is close to 2005 for my most profitable year (I played limit poker and tourneys that year, and had some big scores). Given the supposed drying up of games after the ULIGA, I am very happy with my results.

During this year, however, I have had several HUGE downswings, at least in monetary terms. I bet I have had 15+ drops of $500, with many of those being close to $1000 or more. About half-way through the year, however, those drops stopped phasing me. They just happen and are inevitable. What I can control are my next decisions vs. my opponents. One trick I do sometimes is think about how I would think about my results if I were betting on myself to lose. Franky, I would be depressed. Despite a small "victory", I am only erasing the games from the previous day, or few days (or in rare cases, perhaps a week or more). Then, what often happens is in the next few days that "win" is completely erased and then some.

It is a pretty silly mental trick, but it works for me. For those who have not already, I would highly recommend The Poker Mindset by Taylor and Hilger. I recall what Chip Reese used to claim - he was not necessarily the best against another players "A" game, but his "B", "C", and "D" game were about the same as his "A" game, while other players games dropped off more dramatically. In a time when it is pretty easy to have a reasonable knowledge of the game, so much of my profits come from capitalizing on others not having a good poker mindset. Much of how I keep the money is keeping an appropriate mindset myself.

Update

Things are still going well. I have played all my cash games this month at Cake Poker - and have liked it. I have actually spllit time between 1/2 NL, 2/4 NL, 3/6 NL, and 5/10 NL. When I play anything other than 1/2 NL, however, I am only buying in for about 1/3 of a buyin. I think this is helping me adjust to the stakes without risking more money. Further, as Ed Miller and others have pointed out in their publications, playing a short stack is more "dummy-poker". When adjusting to new stakes, having easy decisions is a good thing. I plan to keep up with this strategy for a while, especially at Cake Poker, where I see virtually no difference in skill level between 1/2 NL and higher.

I am playing some Heads up still - but it is probably only consisting of 10% of my hands.

On a non-poker note, I have been on crutches since the Monday before Thanksgiving after having knee surgery (I had microfracture to rebuild cartilage). I am still on crutches for another few weeks, but feel fortunate that my job gives such a big break between semesters and that I have been forced to sit around and play more poker during the past month. :)

On a less-pleasant note - I now am going to get some forms ready for taxes while I watch the end of the Patriots-Giants game. :(

Poker is a Sick Game

OK - so my actually bankroll is in about the same place as it was Friday in my last post (I think I might be down one buyin). However, I had a 4-buyin upswing Friday and a 4-buyin swing down on Saturday. The problem was Saturday I had the brilliant idea to jump to 2/4 NL, so I was up 800 Friday, then down 1600 for Saturday. After getting slapped around at 2/4 NL, I dropped back to 1/2 NL and won almost 4 buyins Sunday.

So, after 3 days, my bankroll is pretty much right where it was on Friday. But it was a pretty sick ride.

Enjoying my Cake

I have been playing Cake Poker this month, and have been running well (I think I have also been playing well). The players there are just a bit weaker than what you see elsewhere, and I calculated that I am running about 15 PTBB/100 - which is much better than my long-term earn rate.

While I think the weak players are contributing to some of my success, I don't think this type of earn rate is sustainable. However, I think along-term earn rate of 7-8 PTBB/100 might be sustainable at Cake Poker for me, which is still pretty good.

NL HU Cash tip #4

What does your opponent do, and how should you react, the river (PART 2)


So you have now decided to play and you picked an opponent and a buy-in amount you are comfortable with. It is time to play. What should you be thinking about? Well, you should be trying to figure out everything you can about your opponent. What hands is he raising with, what does he limp with? Does he tend to bet big with flopped trips/sets or slowplay? Does he value bet 3rd pair on the river, or does he check down? Does he tilt easily? Does he overbet a monster on the river?

We will work backwards and continue our discussion about your opponent’s river tendencies, and what you should do.

In part 2 of river play, we talk about the light value-bettor.


How do you play against the guy who:

1) Value bets very light (3rd pair through 5th pair).

Raise him often. First, you need to try to figure if he would put in a 3rd river raise with non-monsters. If not, then raise him liberally. Raise him on bluffs, raise him with top and 2-pairs, and monsters. If he is likely to reraise often (or if he catches on that you are river raising him often), then you should start to limit your raises to monsters or bluffs. The monsters are easy calls, the bluffs are easy folds. If bluff raises seem too tough to figure out when to do – pick out one type of hand that you will bluff raise the river with. (Perhaps busted straight draw that completes a possible flush?)

The common thought is to call more. There is truth to that, but to fully exploit someone who is value betting too light, you need to punish this player by raising. Calling more is OK, but you want to limit it to spots where you think you have some value and want to get to the showdown but don't want to put in any more chips.

Next time we will discuss a passive player on the river.

November Review - December Plan

I wrapped up November on a sour note with heads up games. I was up about 32 buyins at one point in the month, ended the month up 27 buyins. Still a good month for a part-time player, but part of the loss in the end was a huge pot (almost double buyin each) when I misplayed the turn. (I had KK against an OAD - flop had a lower pair - turn brought trips to the board. I should have slowed down on the turn, figuring if he has quads I will lose less, and I might win more if he does not. I foolishly bet the turn, and when he pushed the river I was priced in, especially since he had pushed light many times before.)

I was upset with myself over that and took time off from heads up poker. HU poker is strange. It is so different from 6-max or full ring or SNGs. In those, a lot of the decisions are really automatic and you can play OK even if not feeling optimally. HU NL Cash games are so player dependent that if I am not in my top mental condition I should not play.

Since my bad night at HU, I have started playing at Cake Poker - mostly 6-max NL 1/2, and done well. I jumped back into a HU game last night for the first time and won, although I would have only been even for the HU match if it were not for my 99 beating KK by having the 4 hearts on board match my 9 of hearts.

All in all, things are going well. I will continue the HU NL Cash game series soon (I think I actually have the next one mostly written). I had been thinking of jumping more to 2/4 NL HU cash games, but I am not sure I am emotionally ready for those big swings. I have been consistently taking money out of my BR (funding IRAs and Roth IRAs, etc.), perhaps I need to grow my bankroll a bit more and then I would feel more comfortable attacking the bigger games.