Tournament Blow Up
I played in the Supernova freerole on Saturday. When I play that, I often join the pokerstars $30K guaranteed, which has an $11 buyin. I got bounced early in the supernova freerole, but did well in the 30K. I was actually chip leader with 240 or so left, but this tourney has 10 minute blinds, so the chip lead does not afford you as much leeway as in other tourneys.
I made an awful, ill-timed move after I drifted down in chips. I was probably 12th in chips out of 160, but I was in the bb vs. the sb who had more chips. I am going off memory here, so the numbers could be slightly off, but they are close: I had about 190K chips when the average was 110. The sb raised my bb from 6K to 16K. I called the extra 10K with 54 suited.
The flop was K73 (all different suits). The sb led for 20K into the approx 40 K pot. Now it is on me. I think he is going to CB this always. He was very aggressive in the 3 or so orbits I had played with him. So, if he raises 1/2 the hands from the sb, then continuation bets always, his range is super-wide and he usually does not have a king here. Because I have a gutshot straight draw behind in case he does have something, I decided to raise. Up until now, I think my decisions are smart. The next move is where I think I screwed up. I could have raised to 50K. That opened me up to be bluff-3-bet all in and I fold, but it would be very tough for him to 3-bet there without a king. Note that even his bluff has me beat.
If I push, I likely only get called with good kings, a pair of aces, and a set. I decided to almost push - raising to 110 K. This was dumb. He reraised, and I could have folded and left myself with about 65K. Given the odds of a gutshot, I should have done this. I called, however, and busted to his AK. I should have either pushed (which makes my later decision easy), or bet smaller.
In a normal structure tourney, I don't even consider gambling like this. But these have 10 minute levels, and it almost plays like a turbo. Still, I am bummed about the way I played that hand. Cash Games and Sit-and-Goes
I had a good January, mainly with cash games. I am buying in for 30 big blinds at full ring games, mostly 1/2 NL and 2/4 NL, and usually leaving if I hit over 50 big blinds. I had just been crushing the games, but have had a downswing since Sunday night, down between 10-15 buyins. I am still up 10-15 buyins for the month, which is good, but it feels less noteworthy since I was up so much more 5 days ago.
In SNGs, I am still playing super-turbos, and doing pretty well this month (year). I seem to do better on the full tilt ones than on stars, but I think that is probably just short-term variance.
I will likely be playing the stars $50K freerole again Saturday afternoon. I will try to be in IRC for anyone who wants to stop by to chat.