Tuesday, October 17, 2006

More thoughts about my MTT win

A couple more things occurred to me recently.

First, I had no real suckouts in this tourney, except for a K5 vs. A7 when already heads up. I think this is my first major (250+ entrants) tourney score where I have not either won with a dominated hand or underpair vs. overpair. Every time I won a tourney, I had one or more big outdraws to win. To beat 700+ players, you almost need this. I guess my good luck came in hands holding up and always having hands that were not in bad shape.

Second, I think my initial estimate of the probability to make the final table was way too low. The number I calculated was based on a) no losses of coin flips and b) being busted if I had lost any of those coin flips. This would have a big impact. I am guessing, based on the way I played (and the cards I got); I had a 3-5% chance of final tabling.

We are having a child in December. This is good, but means I cannot even attempt the pokerstars WPT trip. That is a bummer.

I have broken even on poker since the MTT win. The big (bad) news is I have some money tied up in a BetWWTS skin, a sportsbetting site. They are closing off their business to U.S. customers and have frozen funds for several days. I think I will get the money back, as there is no reason for a well-functioning firm to close-out business to the U.S. unless they are confident they can survive. To survive, they must maintain a good reputation and pay off U.S. customers. That being said, I have a significant amount there and will be nervous until the money is back in my neteller account.

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