Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fighting through a downswing

I had a pretty bad downswing recently. I actually had a bad 4 days right after the WSOP, so I took a 3-day break. Then I had a great week after that, but proceeded to lose all the profits from my great week within 3 days or so. Most of my loses have come from HU NL holdem, so I am going to take a break from that game until I can figure out and fix my leaks. Some of the downswing is bad luck, but some of it is certainly from bad plays. That being said, I have now posted 3 straight winning days since my disaster of a day Saturday, recouping about 1/2 the losses from that day.

Multitabling stars and thoughts about next year

I have been experimenting with increasing the number of tables I play on stars. I have now 15 tabled NL full ring several times. I have had pretty decent results too. Over about 10K hands, my earn rate is slightly above my long term average earn rate. 10K hands is still very much the "short-run", but I don't feel like I am missing much.

I am going to investigate how to use these "AHK scripts". I would love to work my way up to 24-tabling 1/2 NL. If I can successfully do that - I may make a run at supernova elite on stars next year. If I 24-table 1/2 NL full ring, I estimate that it would take 1200 hours next year. That sounds like a ton of hours, but if I play 20 hours per week during the 30 weeks classes are in session (for 600 hours), and 35 hours per week for 20 other weeks (700 hours), that would get me the necessary hours with some times for when I need breaks. While that sounds like a lot of hours (even for me), I usually play poker every day. So 35 hours a week would mean 3 hours most days, with 3 longer days per week. In addition to 24-tbling 1/2 NL (or perhaps some 2/4 NL in there as well), there are other options. Ten tabling 3/6 limit SH, 5/10 limit full ring, or some combination of the two would also get me about the same number of VPPs as 24-tabling 1/2 NLFR. If I could somehow become a winning player at 5/10 SH and could 8-tbl that, that would get me much more. I think it is important to have this option, as if I get a bit bored of NL, I could take some time to play limit.

During the final 6 months of this year, I will work on figuring out whether I can profitably 24-tbl 1/2 (or 2/4) NLFR, and 10 (or more)-tbl 3/6 SH limit. If I can, I think I will go for it. The rewards are just too awesome, with the value of the enormous number of FPPs, and free buyins to the PCA, WSOP, and WCOOP main events.


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