NL HU Cash tip #3

What does your opponent do, and how should you react, the river (PART 1)


So you have now decided to play and you picked an opponent and a buy-in amount you are comfortable with. It is time to play. What should you be thinking about? Well, you should be trying to figure out everything you can about your opponent. What hands is he raising with, what does he limp with? Does he tend to bet big with flopped trips/sets or slowplay? Does he value bet 3rd pair on the river, or does he check down? Does he tilt easily? Does he overbet a monster on the river?

We will work backwards and today talk about your opponent’s river tendencies, and what you should do.

In part 1 of river play, we talk about two topics, the river overbet and the river check raise.

1) The river overbet: Be very, very careful before calling. Most river overbets are done when someone has the nuts. Not the 2nd nuts, not a good 2nd best hand, not a value bet, but the nuts. This statement is more likely to be true if: 1) your opponent is multi-tabling HU, 2) your opponent has a full buyin, and/or 3) you think your opponent is good. Many players use reverse psychology to think big bets means “he really wants me to fold here”, I should call. That is why the river overbet is used on occasion, and is probably a decent move to have in one’s arsenal.

A river overbet is less likely to be a monster hand (although probability still might be greater than 50%) if 1) your opponent is weak and 2) your opponent is playing a smaller buyin.

2) The river ch-raise: Most weak players don’t have this in their arsenal. Most players at the limits I play usually only do it for value, although I have run into a river bluff ch-raise on a few rare occasions. When is a river ch-raise not likely to be a monster? It is more likely if your opponent is tilting. It is less likely if your opponent is not tilting and perceives you as tilting or someone who is very tough to shake off hands.

The next post in this series will discuss what to do when your opponent value bets the river with very marginal holdings.

Poker related: what am I thankful for?

I had another good year at poker. It is time to give thanks. In the scheme of things, poker is a small thing to be thankful for, relative to family, health, etc. But it never hurts to take a moment to give thanks, even for the little things.


I am thankful that I am able to make some side-money with poker. I certainly have worked hard on improving my game over the past few years, but I know lots of people who have hobbies that don't earn them income.

I am thankful that there are still sites that are open to US players, and the momentum now seems to be more in favor of overturning the ULIGA than for making it stricter.

I am thankful that I have learned how to play HU poker, and play it well.

I am thankful that I might get back into sports-arbitrage soon.

I am thankful for the ITH community. I have made some really good friends there over the past few years.

Tips for playing HU NL poker

I am posting various tips on playing NL HU poker. Some will seem obvious, others not-so-obvious. Some will be technical, others not.

Topic 2: How much should you buy in for?

Someone who can play both shorter and deeper stacked HU equally well probably would have a slightly higher earn rate. However, many players are better at one or the other. Whether to buy in for the full amount or less largely depends on individual factors. Some factors that can point you in one direction vs. another:

1. Do you play a lot of SNGs and especially HU SNGs?

If you play a lot of SNGs, you are used to playing with smaller stacks relative to the blinds. Most SNGs begin with about 50 big blinds, and quickly the biggest stack becomes much less than that. If this is what you are used to, I would recommend buying in for far less than a full buyin. A starting amount of 25-40 big blinds might be appropriate, as this will be similar to the earlier stages of a SNG.

2. How good are you at controlling the pot size?

If you play a lot of cash games, you probably are used to attempting to control the pot size so you win a lot with a monster vs. a good 2nd-best hand, and lose a reasonable amount when you get a good 2nd best hand and go up against a monster. The better you are at controlling the pot size with deep stacks, the more likely you would succeed at HU NL when playing for a full buyin.

3. How mechanical is your game?

If you play mechanically, you should stick with smaller buyins. What do I mean? Well many players are technically quite able, except they tend to think about all situations with similarly and don’t randomize their actions. Do you find yourself doing the same thing heads up every time you have AK, QQ, AA, or 54 suited? If so, you might want to stick to shallower stacks. The more confusion you create for your opponents, the better, so if you tend to think there are several good ways to play a hand and will often play a hand differently, you would be more likely to succeed with deep stacks.

4. How are you feeling right now?

Sometimes your personal mood will indicate how much you want to buy in for – don’t ignore that. If you normally buy in for $100 on a $1 bb NL HU table, but don’t want to risk that much right now, there is no shame in buyin in for $40-$60.

Tips for playing HU NL poker

I will start posting various tips on playing NL HU poker. Some will seem obvious, others not-so-obvious. Some will be technical, others not.

Today, I begin where you begin: picking a table.


TOPIC 1: How to select a table in NL HU cash games

Table selection is important in all games, but it might be more critical in HU games than elsewhere. There are only two players in a HU game, you and your opponent. Unless you are better than everyone in the world, there are two possibilities:

- You are better than your opponent
- Your opponent is better than you

There is more to it than that, of course. There are many players who I think I am better than who play HU NL, but I avoid them. Why? Because they are decent players and their flaws are more-minor than the typical player. Against these players, my EV would be way down.

So, table selection is important, but you might ask: how do I find a good opponent to play? Here are a few tips:

1. When you first sit down – search the opponent on the site. Are they playing multiple HU tables? If they are – you should probably leave. Someone who plays multiple heads-up tables at once almost always is a winner. Why? Well if they are not a winner, they won’t be playing HU NL very long – so it would be really lucky to bump into one.

2. How much do they buy in for? If someone buys in for the full amount or the pre-set standard amount, that does not tell me much about their play. But, if someone buys in for $126.2 at the $1/$2 NL table, that gives me very valuable information. They probably are buying in for the last of their bankroll. Players who do this are more likely to make big errors, and I love them at my table. Further, players who buy in for the minimum or close to it and only play one table are often appealing.

3. When you are playing, what do you notice? Is this player making good value bets, mixing up his/her play, bluffing or semi-bluffing occasionally, etc. If so, perhaps you should leave. If someone is raising all in for $80 pre-flop to steal your $2 – smile and enjoy!

4. Have you lost 2-buyins to the same player? If you have, maybe you should leave. First, maybe you think they are weak, but they are stronger than you. Even if they are indeed weak, they are now likely playing their very best game. There is nothing wrong with stopping the game and going to another table. Sometimes, even mention in chat – "you have my number today, so I think I am done: gg". If you really think that player is weak, they will spot you again at a later time and might sit down with you.


Many people feel embarrassed to leave a table. Don’t be this guy. Poker is about making money. There are many times I have said “no thanks” and sat out when someone I don’t want to face sits at my table. Other times I have said “I think you seem like a good player – I am going to look for some fish.” If your goal is to improve against good competition, then take on some of these players and test yourself. However, if your goal is to make money, don’t feel embarrassed about not playing the other strong players.

Killing the games!

I had been on a good run before my post on Friday. In the 60 hours or so since that post, I am up about 8 full buyins at 1/2 NL HU playing a couple hours each day. I guess that is not too out-of-the-ordinary in the scheme of things, but that boost to my bankroll is quite welcome.

My hourly rate

I decided to go back through my PT stats for heads up games to see how profitable they have been this year? I am running about about 9 PTBB/100 at HU games (all levels). It is slightly higher for 1/2 NL HU, where I have played the bulk of my games. This translates into 18 big blinds per 100 hands. The tradeoff you face when playing heads up is that it is tougher to play multiple tables, but you get more hands per table than in 6-max for full ring. I get in about 130 hands per hour per table. So, per hour, I am earning about 24 big blinds per hour per table. I was a bit stunned to see how high this was - perhaps I am just running really hot and my actual long-term rate will only be about half of this. If that is the case, I will enjoy the ride until the crash hits.

Not dead, but not posting much

I have been so busy with life, that I have not really considered posting much recently.

I plan on playing less often. I still enjoy poker, but not as much. Funny story, though. I told my wife that I was going to cut down on poker a week ago Thursday. Since then, I have gone on an absolute tear, bringing in a great 10 days of results. So results have been OK, even though play-time has been limited.

I have really been dominating HU Cash NL. I feel like I have slipped at NL HU SNGs, but it could just be variance. The HU NL cash is so profitable, though, I have focused on that instead.

Family life is going great, work is going well, but not much time for poker. Things might change in about 17 years when our youngest is out of the house. Until then, I guess I have to come to grips with the fact that I won't be playing as much as I once did.