Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Long time, no post ...

I have been swamped at work, and unable to play much recently.

A few notes:

I am still playing a bit, doing fine in $55 turbo SNGs, $69 non-turbo SNGs on FT poker, PL omaha (both SH and full ring), and NL holdem (full ring).

I am working at selecting players for SharkDAQ http://www.internettexasholdem.com/phpbb2/sat-oct-28-2006-756-am-vp6467010.html . That has been fun - there will be a good group playing there. It has been tough to evaluate players, but I think the committee (me, Tall Paul, and nside) are doing a decent job at both giving players a chance to play the Sunday million and providing a +EV situation for our shareholders.

Since my big tourney win, I have had some awful luck in tourneys. In one, I had a chance to be chip leader early with 5x the starting stack, 30 minutes in, but lost when my flopped straight lost to a runner-runner boat when a guy called a flop bet with 22 on a KQT board. What a donkey! Oh well, I guess I want all my luck in one tourney.

I am really busy with school and my consulting work. It is quite lucrative, but definitely time-consuming. It cuts into leisure time, however.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

More thoughts about my MTT win

A couple more things occurred to me recently.

First, I had no real suckouts in this tourney, except for a K5 vs. A7 when already heads up. I think this is my first major (250+ entrants) tourney score where I have not either won with a dominated hand or underpair vs. overpair. Every time I won a tourney, I had one or more big outdraws to win. To beat 700+ players, you almost need this. I guess my good luck came in hands holding up and always having hands that were not in bad shape.

Second, I think my initial estimate of the probability to make the final table was way too low. The number I calculated was based on a) no losses of coin flips and b) being busted if I had lost any of those coin flips. This would have a big impact. I am guessing, based on the way I played (and the cards I got); I had a 3-5% chance of final tabling.

We are having a child in December. This is good, but means I cannot even attempt the pokerstars WPT trip. That is a bummer.

I have broken even on poker since the MTT win. The big (bad) news is I have some money tied up in a BetWWTS skin, a sportsbetting site. They are closing off their business to U.S. customers and have frozen funds for several days. I think I will get the money back, as there is no reason for a well-functioning firm to close-out business to the U.S. unless they are confident they can survive. To survive, they must maintain a good reputation and pay off U.S. customers. That being said, I have a significant amount there and will be nervous until the money is back in my neteller account.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

MTT last night

Perhaps I spoke a bit too soon about my MTT game when I thought I was playing poorly. Last night I entered a $30 tourney on pokerstars that started at 8:30 and had 725 entrants. 5 hours and 10 minutes later, it was over, and I took down first place prize money after a chop when heads up.

It was a strange tourney. I was down to 900 chips in the first hour, but doubled to 2200 with TT vs. AT. Then maintained by steals, and doubled again when I pushed J4o with 2 limpers to pick up $700 in dead money and got called by 43s (WTF). Then doubled to 10K with AJ vs KQ.

I was not getting the most premium hands, AA-QQ. In fact, until this point, I had not had AA-QQ. I was getting enough decent hands, however, to get into situations as modest favorites most of the time. Pretty soon, however, I started winning coinflips. Won 5k more to 15k by winning with JJ vs. AK. I stole my way to 18K with little over the next few orbits, then finally got KK and someone with AQ did not beleive me (I had been stealing), and suddenly I was up to 30K, double the average. At 30K, I actually think I played my best poker. With little to work with, I managed to only fall back to 24K as the average when from 14K to 34K. I was able to stay "in the game" and not be blinded out too much over the course of 10 orbits or so. Then, was able to steal back to 30K, just barely behind the average.

I picked up 88 and gambled vs. AK and won to get to 70K, lost a bit when a guy flopped a set of Ks, but then won a big pot multiway with 99 when I made a good turn call. Up to 90K. From there, I rotated who I stole from, chipped up a bit, won two more coin flips (AT vs. 33) and (JJ vs. AQ), and was the chip leader with 12 left. What I was happy with, is that I was the aggressor in these situations. I lost a small coin flip to push me down a bit, but was doing great going into the final table.

At the final table I flopped a set of JJ early to start things off well, then just played poker. Stole a bit, made a couple hands, lost some on failed plays, but kept increasing my stack until 3 handed I had 600 K and my opponents had 200 and 300K. I lost all in vs. the 200K player, and he ended up busting the shortie, so I got heads up with almost a 3-1 chip disadvantage. I got lucky and doubled with K5 vs. A7, which gave me a small chip lead, the other guy offered a chop, and we ended it.

It is interesting to look at all the big all ins I won prior to the final table:

TT vs. AT (68% to win)
JJ vs. AQ (56%)
AT vs. 33 (47%)
KK vs. AQ (71%)
88 vs. AK (55%)
AJ vs. KQ (60%)
J4 vs. 43 (64%)
JJ vs. AK (56%)

The odds of winning all of these is 1.5%. Now, I was not all in on some of these (opponent was), but they all helped in a) getting to the final table, and b) getting there with lots of chips. I had one all in that I can recall PF that I did not win prior to the final table, and was lucky that THAT all in was one that only for 20% of my stack when I had over double the average. However, this shows the luck involved. By going 7-1 in flips, I got to the final table tied for 2nd chip position. In this tourney, 1.2% of players got to the final table. I played well, and had slightly better than a 1.5% chance of getting there (albeit with a lot of chips).

This is somewhat reassuring to think about with my previous "slump". I played supurb this tourney (IMO), and got myself into situations where I had a 1.5% chance of making the final table (the odds are almost certainly understated, since I lost one coin flip and would not have busted if I had lost several of the others). These odds were considerably better than those a random player would have had, especially since I was down to 900 chips early. However, it still takes quite a bit of luck to win a tournament.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

PLO, NL holdem, and SNGs

These are the 3 games I have been playing in my spare time. Each is interesting. In ways, I think if I focused on SNGs, I could make the most money. This is especially true on full tilt when working off a bonus (adds about 5% to the ROI) and on sites with rakeback (I think absolute gives rakeback for SNGs). But, I really have not played them as much as other games recently.

I have played PLO and have see-sawed. A couple weeks ago I had a great run. I since then I went down-up-down-up. Last night I went down again, losing about 1 buyin over the course of a hundred hands or so.

I have played a bit of NL holdem on gamesgrid and pitbullpoker. My great run at pitbull ended and, while still up, am not up as much as before. On gamesgrid I used some left-over money from being a prop and put it all on a NL table.

I really need to find a game and focus, I think. Currently, I am thinking about focusing much more on NL holdem (either $100 or $200 buy in games) or SNGs (anywhere from $30-$100 buy in turbos).

Since Thursday I am down a bit, but that is mostly (maybe even all) from tourney buyins on Thursday and Sunday.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Thoughts about my MTT game

There might be something really fundamentally flawed with my MTT game. I have not had good results this year. This year I have had 4 MTT wins, but all for relatively low buyins (except for the WSOP seat). Further, two of these tourneys had fewer than 50 entrants. It seems like I should be doing better. Last year I had 3 cashes over $3500 (one was far more than that), and a few more cashes for over $1000. All this as a part-time tourney player. This year has not been the same.

Perhaps this is just the variance of MTTs that a part-timer would see. Part of my sour feeling is the way things have gone for me in tourneys that are a) live, or b) big buyin online. I just have not performed well in these recently. I can’t figure out if I am doing anything wrong, but I am not making deep runs.

A few things that always make me think things are OK is that I do have a fair number of wins this year despite the fact that I don’t play MTTs too often (maybe 2-3 times a week I will play them, perhaps a total of 7-10/week on average). Also, I railed (and have provided modest suggestions) to two ITHers recently, one won a party tourney for several thousand, the other won much more. Those who hear my advice seem to think I still have some good thoughts.

I guess I am just frustrated now. I busted out of the stars million today when doing the ITH chop. Thursday I had an 0-fer in tourneys, as well. Because I have consistently thought my best game has been MTTs, I get a bit down when I think I might not be as good at them anymore.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Not playing much, but ....

Things are going well. I am working off a bonus at a small site call pitbull poker. The only game with stakes that are big enough to interest me is a $1 bb NL holdem game ($100 buy in). I have had a nice run there. I have had a couple nice outdraws when aggressively betting (in ways I have been unlucky that they hit, but then got lucky to outdraw), but overall the play is bad. I am up several buyins with just a couple hours of play. I have had a couple outdraws, so got some good luck, but had a couple outdraws that cost me some mid-sized pots also. These players have been calling massive bets at times with inferior hands, which makes the game quite good.

Are the $100 NL games this bad everywhere? Perhaps they are and I just don't play them. Maybe I should consider a switch over to NL $100 or $200 buy in games.

Monday, October 02, 2006

I figure I should make a non-rant post as well

I have not played much recently, just too busy. I think that will be the case through December when the semester ends. We will have a new baby then, which will take some time away also. But, if this baby is like the last, I expect many hours holding the baby so he sleeps while I play poker.

I had done OK at PLO last week, but gave back a bit of profits this week. Mostly variance, although I think I made at least two bad decisions as well. I have played a few turbo tourneys - getting a bad outdraw that cost me $1000 W$ in a limit tourney when a guy stuck around with 88 on a KT2-A turn and spike a set on the river. I was not happy. I did win 280 W$ in a double shootout, but I am still unhappy abou that 2 outer. I have played a few tourneys as well, cashing in a $30 NL on party but losing a coin-flip once in the money. I was happy overall with my play.

I put money into pokerroom and pulled it from all the crypto sites. Pokerroom has a good bonus and claims that they will keep allowing U.S. action. Crypto is not, so I just got my money out of there and into neteller.

I need to find some live games around here. Anyone know where there are live games near Selinsgrove PA?

The new anti-gambling law

Republicans are no longer a party of freedom. As much as democrats positions on
- minimum wages
- taxes
- entitlement programs
- war on terror
- free trade
- capitalism in general
- best education programs

all make me sick, I am going to vote for them this fall.

The U.S. is no longer the land of the free.